The Australian Election: Who will win?

The Australian Election: Who will win?

Edition 3 of 3

Written By Alice Almeida

So what have we learnt from the first and second blog?

  • It seems Australian’s are more interested in the US election than the Australian one
  • If traffic to a website means anything, The Greens are a party to watch closely
  • Australian’s don’t seem to take our leaders seriously with many of the search terms revolving around humorous terms such a Malcolm being good looking, Bill having man boobs and funny ‘zingers’ (I had to google what they were). Political policies barely registered.
  • Is it Labor or Labour? Over half of the search for the Labor Party are spelt incorrectly.
  • The younger generation of voters need to be the focus of any political party. There is more to Australia than families.
  • Policies of importance for this new generation of voters are Marriage Equality, Asylum Seekers and Climate Change.
  • The Greens seem to be the most popular party with this new generation of voters.

I have to admit, the last time I voted, my opinion of the Australian government was very different to what it is now. Voting back then was a chore, I mean who likes to stand in a line 200 people deep on the weekend that doesn’t end with Gelato Messina or Din Tai Fung dumplings?! The only thing that made it at all pleasant, was the school fundraising sausage sizzle (there’s a theme here…). But this time around, I want to vote. In fact, I am now that person who gets annoyed when I hear someone say they are not going to vote and will ‘cop the fine’. I won’t go into the reasons as to why I feel so passionately about this (Norfolk Island), but I have been preparing for this election for some time. Have others? Is it a last minute thought? Have we been completely and utterly distracted by the US election and Brexit?

Take a look at this chart.

election_blog3chart

It represents the online traffic to the Liberal, Labor and Greens websites. What does it tell you? It tells me that Labor & Liberal voters don’t visit their specific websites until the very last minute so how concerned about the policies can they be? It’s also shows me that The Greens traffic started peaking 2 weeks before Labor and Liberals started to shift. Is this the fence sitters sussing out who to vote for? Is this Greens voters getting psyched for the election? Either way, in regards to strumming up interest – The Greens are doing things right in the lead up to the election.

It may seem that I have been very positive towards The Greens Party this blog series, but to me, The Greens produced the most fascinating insights for this whole election. Not only are they growing in popularity but many of the new generation of voters also strongly support what they stand for. Of all people seeking out information and policies for The Greens in the past month, almost 50% were 18-34. Within that group, the most searched for policies are Marriage Equality, Climate Change and Asylum Seekers. This is why The Greens is the party to watch closely.

But who will win the election? I believe a lot of people will vote based on the leader and not the party. If this is in fact the case, Malcolm Turnbull will win. Why? Because Bill Shorten is not taken seriously (if the leading search terms are ‘man boobs’, ‘memes’, ‘zinger’, then I don’t believe you can take that person seriously – well, as Prime Minister) and because Richard Di Natale won’t get enough of the 35+ votes to pull through. To me, it’s part popularity contest and based on the Search terms – Malcolm certainly comes up trumps for that.

So in summary, the Liberal Party will continue to lead this country but I will be putting money on The Greens in a few years’ time!

Whatever way you vote, have a great day and help yourself to a sausage sandwich – meat or vegan.

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